Professor Sergio Koreisha and Associate Professor Yue Fang engage in several projects dealing with economic forecasting issues and problems affecting the construction of regression models. Regression analysis, a widely used statistical modeling tool, is concerned with quantifying relationships among variables such as between sales and various marketing promotions and measures of competition. Understanding these relationships help managers make intelligent business decisions, formulate strategies, and develop forecasts that are critical to future planning and control efforts of an organization. Examples of their current projects include:
- Evaluating the Validity of Inferences When Both Heteroscedasticity and Autocorrelation Are Present.
- Should You Trust Tests of Significance in Econometric Models Based on Asymptotically Consistent Methods?
- Estimation and Forecasting of Regression Models with Misspecified ARCHGARCH Models.
- Trends and Temporal Aggregation in Macroeconomic Time Series.
Associate Professor Nagesh Murthy is currently developing normative and empirical models to address strategic and tactical issues at the interface of operations, marketing, and R&D. For example, Professor Murthy is investigating the impact of simulation training on call center agent performance. These models assist firms to gain a better understanding of methods to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of their supply chain decisions.
Professor Murthy also researches in the area of sustainable supply chains as part of his role in the Center for Sustainable Supply Chain Management. He has a forthcoming publication, "Supply chain implications of recycling" in Business Horizons.
Associate Professor Michael Pangburn studies the effects of product characteristics and their impact on firm operations. One current project, for example, looks at the impact of high-tech products’ obsolescence on capacity and pricing decisions. His other current projects include:
- Capacity Decisions for High-tech Products with Obsolescence (with S. Sundaresan)
- Product Choice with Recourse: Purchases with Returns (with E. Stavrulaki)
- Product Versioning and Timing for Durable Goods.
- Inventory Disclosure in Online Retailing (with A. Talalayevsky)
Assistant Professor Zhibin (Ben) Yang conducts research in supply chain risk management. His current research effort is focused on supply-disruption risk management in the presence of asymmetric risk information, that is, the buyer has limited information about its supplier's likelihood of disruption. In his most recent project, Zhibin studies the buyer's use of two operational risk-management tools: a recourse option, which can be used if a disruption occurs; and a dual-sourcing option, which allows the buyer to diversify its source of supply. Using game-theoretic models, Zhibin explores the following research questions: (1) What is the effect of asymmetric risk information on the buyer's use of the operational risk-management tools?; (2) What is the benefit of having better information about the supplier's likelihood of disruption?; (3) What is the value of the operational risk-management tools under asymmetric information?
Assistant Professor Yongli Zhang's research interests include data mining, time series and financial econometrics. His current research in data mining has been centered at three topics - adaptive model selection, high dimensional data analysis and forecasting accuracy assessment. In the area of time series, he is doing research on adaptive order determination and model combination. He also studies the regime-switching modeling by infinite-state hidden Markov chain. For financial econometrics, he focuses on order determination in GARCH, extra high frequency data analysis and high dimensional covariance matrix estimation.
Assistant Professor Eren Cil’s broad research interests lie in the areas of service operations, strategic pricing under competition, and the applications of queuing theory. Currently, he focuses on the competition among independent service providers in large-scale service marketplaces. His recent research paper studies how the interventions of the firm moderating the marketplace affects the outcome of the competition among providers. He follows an approach using the fundamentals of both queuing and game theory in his research.
Assistant Professor Xing Hu joined the Department of Operations and Business Analytics in December 2012. She received her Ph.D. in the field of Operations Management from the Stern School of Business at New York University. She holds a bachelor degree in Applied Mathematics from Peking University in Beijing, China.
Publications in Major Journals
For most recent publications, visit the Department of Operations and Business Analytics homepage.
Koreisha, S., Y. Fang and Qi-Man Shao, “Efficient Estimation and Inference for Linear Models with Serial Correlation Structures.”
Gong, X., Q. Wang, H. Deng, N. N. Murthy, and G. Cai, “Characterizing Performance-Based Demand Allocation Policies to Stimulate Supplier Capacities.”
Yang, Z. B. and V. Babich, “Should Buyers use Procurement Service Providers when Suppliers have Private Information about Supply Disruptions?”
Aydinliyim, T. and M. S. Pangburn, E. Rabinovich, and M. Choi, “Is the Cue “In Stock” Always Effective: Inventory Information Disclosure Tactics to Leverage Stockout Risk.”
Aydinliyim, T. and N. N. Murthy, “Managing Engineering Design for Competitive Sourcing in Closed Loop Supply Chains.”
Yang, Z. B. and N. N. Murthy, “Timing and Signaling Considerations for Recovery from Supply Chain Disruption.”
Geismar, N. and N. N. Murthy, "Balancing Production, Inventory, and Distribution Costs in Paper Manufacturing"
Ghosh, S., N. N. Murthy, and B. J. Park, "Integrating Product Platform Development with Supply Chain Configuration: Implications for Mass Customization"
Hu, X. and R. Caldentey, “Trust and Reciprocity in Firm’s Capacity Sharing.”
Hu, X., Y. Chen and Z. Wan, “Strategic Customized Assortment and Recommendation.”
Pangburn, M. S. and E. Cil, “Can There Be Too Much Variety? Limits of Mass Customization.”
Allon G., A. Bassamboo, and E. Cil, “Skill and Capacity Management in Large Scale Service Marketplaces.”
Yu, C., Y. Fang, B. Li, and B. Zhang, “Non-Parametric Estimation of High-frequency Spot Volatility for Brownian Semimartingale with Jumps,“ Journal of Time Series Analysis. Forthcoming.
Koreisha, S. and Y. Zhang, “Adaptive Order Determination for Constructing Time Series Forecasting Models,” Communications in Statistics: Theory and Methods. Forthcoming.
Pangburn, M. S. and E. Stavrulaki (2014), “Take Back Costs and Product Durability,” European Journal of Operational Research 238: 175-184.
Guo, P., Q. Cehn, X. Guo, and Y. Fang (2014), “Path-Dependent Game Options: A Lookback Case,” Review of Derivative Research 17 (1): 113-124
Yang, Z. B. and V. Babich (2014), “Does a Procurement Service Provider Generate Value for the Buyer through Information about Supply Risks?” Management Science. Forthcoming.
Hu, X. and R. Caldentey, G. Vulcano (2013), “Revenue Sharing in Airline Alliances,” Management Science 59 (5): 1177-1195.
Cil, E. and M. A. Lariviere (2013), “Saving Seats for Strategic Customers,” Operations Research 61 (6): 1321-1332.
Aydinliyim, T. and M. S. Pangburn (2013), “Reducing Packaging Waste and Cost via Consumer Price Discounts,” Decision Sciences 43 (6): 1063-1089.
Aydinliyim, T. and G. L. Vairaktarakis (2013), “A Cooperative Savings Game Approach to a Time Sensitive Capacity Allocation and Scheduling Problem, ” Decision Sciences 44 (2): 357-376.
Yang, Z. B., G. Aydin, V. Babich, and D. R. Beil (2012), “Supply Disruptions, Asymmetric Information, and a Dual Sourcing Option,” Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 14 (2): 202-217.
Allon G., A. Bassamboo, and E. Cil (2012), “Large Scale Service Marketplaces: The Role of the Moderating Firm.” Management Science 58 (10): 1854-1872.
Cil, E., F. Karaesmen, and E.L. Ormeci (2011), "Dynamic Pricing and Scheduling in a Multi-Class Single-Server Queueing System," Queueing Systems: Theory and Application 67 (4).
Cil, E., F. Karaesmen, and E.L. Ormeci (2010), "Effects of System Parameters on the Optimal Policy Structure in a Class of Queueing Control Problems," Queueing Systems: Theory and Application 61.
Yang, Z., G. Aydin, and D. Babich (2010), Decentralized Supply Risk Management. Handbook of Integrated Risk Management in Global Supply Chains. Wiley & Sons.
Yin, F. (2010), "Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Recommender Systems on Sales," with Rob Garfinkel, Ram Gopal, Bhavik Pathak, and Rajkumar Venkatesan. Journal of MIS 27 (2): 159-188.
Zhang, Y. and X. Shen (2010), "Model Selection Procedure for High Dimensional Data," Statistical Analysis and Data Mining 3: 350-358.
Baker T. and Murthy, N. N. (2009), "The Implications of Forecast Accuracy on the Benefits of Online Auctions in Business-to-Business and Business-to-Consumer Environments," International Journal of Services and Operations Management 5 (3): 299-325.
Pangburn, M.S. and S. Sundaresan (2009), "Capacity Decisions for High-Tech Products with Obsolescence," European Journal of Operational Research 197: 102–111.
Yang, Z. B., G. Aydin, V. Babich, and D. R. Beil (2009), Supply Disruptions, Asymmetric Information, and a Backup Production Option." Management Science 55 (2): 192--209.
Zhang, Y. (2009), "Model Selection: A Lagrange Optimization Approach," Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference 139: 3142-3159.
Koreisha, S. & Fang, Y. (2008),"Using Least Squares to Generate Forecasts in Regressions with Serial Correlation," Journal Time Series Analysis 29 (3): 555-580.
Fang, Y. (2008) "Semi-parametric Specification Tests for Mixing Distributions," Computational Statistics and Data Analysis 52 (5): 2829-2839.
Goodale, J.C., Kuratko, D.F., and Hornsby, J.S. (2008), "Influence-factors for operational control and compensation in professional service firms." Journal of Operations Management 26 (5): 669-688.
Murthy, N. N., Challagalla, G., Vincent, L., and Sherwani, T. (2008), "The Impact of Simulation Training on Call Center Agent Performance: A Field-Based Investigation", Management Science, 54 (2): 384-399.
Swafford, P., Ghosh, S., and Murthy, N. N., "Achieving Supply Chain Agility Through IT Integration and Flexibility," International Journal of Production Economics.
Baker T., and Murthy, N. N., "Implications of Forecast Accuracy on the Benefits of Online Auctions in Business-to-Business and Business-to-Consumer Environments," International Journal of Services and Operations Management.
Pangburn, M.S., E. Stavrulaki (2008), "Capacity and Price Setting for Dispersed, Time-Sensitive Customer Segments," European Journal of Operational Research 184: 1100-1121.
Balakrishnan, A., M.S. Pangburn, E. Stavrulaki (2008), "Integrating the Promotional and Service Roles of Retail Inventories," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 10 (2).
Aydinliyim , T. (2008), "Sequencing Strategies and Coordination Issues for Outsourcing and Subcontracting Operations," in Handbook of Production Planning, edited by K. Kempf, P. Keskinocak, and R. Uzsoy, Kluwer. Academic Publishers.
Aydinliyim , T. (2008), "Centralization vs. Competition in Subcontracting Operations," Proceedings of the 13th M&SOM Conference, University of Maryland.
Garfinkel, R., Gopal, R., Pathak, P., and Yin, F., (2008), "Shopbot 2.0: Integrating Recommender Systems and Sales Promotions with Comparison Shopping,” Decision Support Systems 46 (1): 61-69.
Murthy, N. N., M. Shrikhande, and A. Subramanian (2007), "Switching Costs, Dynamic Uncertainty, and Buyer-Seller Relationships," Naval Research Logistics 54 (8): 859-873.
Pagell, M., Z. Wu, and N. N. Murthy (2007), "Supply Chain Implications of Recycling," Business Horizons 50 (2): 133-143.
Fang, Y., T. O'Neill, M. Martin and S. Roberts (2006) "On the Power of Portmanteau Serial Correlation Tests," Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation, Vol. 76, No. 7, 593-604.
Thompson, G.M. and Goodale, J.C. (2006) Variable employee productivity in workforce scheduling. European Journal of Operational Research, 170(2), 376-390.
Swafford, P., Ghosh, S., and Murthy, N. N. (2006) "The Antecedents of Supply Chain Agility: Scale Development and Model Testing", Journal of Operations Management, 24(2), 170-188.
Swafford, P., Ghosh, S., and Murthy, N. N. (2006) "A Framework for Assessing Value Chain Agility," International Journal of Operations and Production Management, 26(2), 118-140.
Gopal, R., Pathak, B., Tripathi, A., and Yin, F. (2006) "From Fatwallet to Ebay: An Investigation of Online Deal Forums and Sales Promotions," Journal of Retailing, 82(2), 155 – 164.
Garfinkel, R., Gopal, R., Tripathi, A., and Yin, F. (2006) "Shopbot Design with Bundle Promotions and Procurements," Decision Support Systems, 42(3), 1974-1986.
Koreisha, S. and Fang, Y. (forthcoming). "Dealing with Serial Correlation," in Statistical Analysis: A Festschrift for Tarmo Pukkila, edited by S. Puntanen and E. Liski.
Fang, Y., T. O'Neill, M. Martin and S. Roberts, "On the Power of Portmanteau Serial Correlation Tests," Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation, forthcoming, 2005.
Fang, Y., 2005, "The Effect of the Estimation on Goodness-of-fit Tests in Time Series Models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Vol. 26, No. 4, 527-541.
Gelman, A. and Pardoe, I. (forthcoming). "Bayesian measures of explained variance and pooling in multilevel (hierarchical) models," Technometrics.
Pangburn, M. (2005). "Service Facility Location and Design with Pricing and Waiting-Time Considerations", with E. Stavrulaki. Supply Chain Optimization, J. Geunes and P.M. Pardalos, eds., Kluwer Academic Publishers.
Pardoe, I. (forthcoming). "Just how predictable are the Oscars?," Chance.
Zhang J., P. Chen and Y. Fang, 2005, "A Two-stage Procedure on Comparing Several Experimental Treatments and a Control," Journal of Applied Mathematics and Decision Sciences, Vol. 9, No. 1, 47-58.
Thompson, G.M. and Goodale, J.C. (2005) Variable employee productivity in workforce scheduling. Forthcoming in European Journal of Operational Research.
Easton, F.F. and Goodale, J.C. (2005) Service recovery: Unplanned absences in service operations. Decision Sciences, 36(3), 459-488.
Swafford, P., Ghosh, S., and Murthy, N. N. (Forthcoming) "The Antecedents of Supply Chain Agility: Scale Development and Model Testing", Journal of Operations Management.
Baker T., and Murthy, N. N. (2005). "Viability of Auction-Based Revenue Management in Sequential Markets," Decision Sciences, 36(2), 259-286.
Swafford, P., Ghosh, S., and Murthy, N. N. (Forthcoming) "A Framework for Assessing Value Chain Agility," International Journal of Operations and Production Management.
Balakrishnan, A., Pangburn, M., and Stavrulaki, E. (forthcoming). "Stack them High, Let 'em Fly: Lot-Sizing Policies when Inventories Stimulate Demand," Management Science.
Balakrishnan, A., Geunes, J., and Pangburn, M. (forthcoming). "Impacts of Variability Control Agreements on Distribution Chain Performance," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management.
Durham, C. A., I. Pardoe, and E. Vega. (2004). "A methodology for evaluating how product characteristics impact choice in retail settings with many zero observations: an application to restaurant wine purchase," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 29(1), 112-131.
Koreisha, S. and Y. Fang, 2004, "Updating ARMA Predictions for Temporal Aggregates," Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 23, No. 4, 275-296.
Fang, Y. and S. Koreisha, 2004, "Forecasting with Serially Correlated Regression Models," Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation, Vol. 74, No. 9, 625-649.
Goodale, J. C. and Thompson, G.M. (2004). "A comparison of heuristics for assigning individual employees to labor tour schedules," Annals of Operations Research , 128, 47-63.
Koreisha, S. G. and Fang, Y. (forthcoming). "Forecasting with Regression Models Containing Misspecified Serial Correlation Structures," Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation.
Koreisha, S. G. and Pukkila, T. (forthcoming). "The Specification of Vector ARMA Processes," Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation.
Murthy, N. N., Soni, S., and Ghosh, S. (2004). "A Framework for Facilitating Sourcing and Allocation Decisions for Make-to-Order Items," Decision Sciences, 35 (4), 609-637.
Pardoe, I. (2004). Multidimensional scaling for selecting small groups in college courses. The American Statistician 58(4), 317–321.
Pardoe, I. and R. R. Weidner. (forthcoming). "Sentencing convicted felons in the United States: a Bayesian analysis using multilevel covariates," Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference.
Pardoe, I. (2004). Model assessment plots for multilevel logistic regression. Computational Statistics and Data Analysis 46(2), 295–307.
Weidner, R. R., R. Frase, and I. Pardoe. (2004). "Explaining sentence severity in large urban counties: a multilevel analysis of contextual and case-level factors," The Prison Journal, 84(2), 184–207.
Zhang J., P. Chen and Fang, Y. (forthcoming). "A Two-stage Procedure on Comparing Several Experimental Treatments and a Control," Journal of Applied Mathematics and Decision Sciences.
Fang, Y. and Xu, D. (2003) "The Predictability of Asset Returns: An approach combining technical analysis and time series forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, 19, 369-385.
Fang, Y. (2003) "Semi-parametric Specification Tests for Discrete Probability Models," Journal of Risk and Insurance, 70, 75-86.
Fang, Y. (2003) "C-chart, X-chart, and the Katz Family of Distributions," Journal of Quality Technology, 35, No. 1.
Fang, Y. (2003) "Forecasting Combination and Encompassing Tests," International Journal of Forecasting, 19, No.1, 87-94.
Fang, Y. (2003) "GMM Tests for the Katz Family of Distributions," Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference, 110, 55-73.
Goodale, J. C., Verma, R. V. and Pullman, M. E. (2003). "A market utility-based model for capacity scheduling in mass services. Production and Operations Management, 12, 165-185.
Goodale, J. C., Verma, R. V. and Pullman, M. E. (2003). "A market-utility approach to scheduling employees," Cornell Hotel and Restaurant Administration Quarterly, 33, 61-69.
Murthy, N. N., Benton, W. C., and Rubin, P. A. (2003). "Offsetting Inventory Cycles of Items Sharing Storage,", European Journal of Operational Research, 150(2), 304-319.
Baker, T., Murthy, N. N., and Jayaraman, V. (2002) "Service Package Switching in Hotel Revenue Management Systems," Decision Sciences, 33, 109-132.
Baker, T., and Murthy, N. N. (2002) "A Framework for Estimating Benefits of Using Auctions in Revenue Management," Decision Sciences, 33, 385-413.
Fang, Y. (2002) "The Compass Rose and Random Walk Tests," Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, 39, 299-310.
Hill, A. V., Collier, D. A., Froehle, C. M., Goodale, J. C., Metters, R. D. and Verma, R. (2002). "Research Opportunities in Service Process Design," Journal of Operations Management, 20(2), 189-202.
Pardoe, I. and R. D. Cook (2002). "A graphical method for assessing the fit of a logistic regression model," The American Statistician 56(4), 263–272.
Koreisha, S. and Fang, Y. (2001). "GLS Estimation of Regression Models With Misspecified Serial Correlation Structures," Journal of the Royal Statistics Society: B, 63, 515-531.
Kuratko, D. F., Goodale, J. C. and Hornsby, J. S. (2001). "Quality practices for a competitive advantage in smaller firms," Journal of Small Business Management, 39, 293-311.
Pullman, M., Verma, R. and Goodale, J. C. (2001). "Service design and operations strategy formulation in multicultural markets," Journal of Operations Management, 19, 239-254. This paper won the Irwin/McGraw-Hill Best Paper Award at the 1999 SOMA International Conference.
Pardoe, I. (2001). "A Bayesian sampling approach to regression model checking," Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics 10(4), 617–627. (Winning entry in the 2000 Student Paper Competition sponsored by the Statistical Computing Section of the American Statistical Association.)
Pangburn, M. (2001). "Coordinating the Distribution Chain: New Models for New Challenges," with A. Balakrishnan and J. Geunes. Supply Chain Management: Models, Applications, and Research Directions, edited by J. Geunes, P.M. Pardalos, and H.E. Romeijn. Kluwer Academic Publishers.
Balakrishnan, A., Natarajan, H. P., and Pangburn, M. (2000). "Optimizing Delivery Fees for a Network of Distributors," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, 2, 297-316.
Castner, G. J. and Ferguson, C. B. (2000) "The effect of transaction costs on the decision to replace "off-the-shelf" software: the role of software diffusion and software infusion," Information Systems Journal, 10, 65-83.
Fang, Y. (2000). "Decades of Daily Data versus One Week Data with Ultra-high Frequency: A note on estimating expected rate of return and volatility," Applied Economics Letters, 193-197.
Fang, Y. (2000). "Seasonality in Foreign Exchange Volatility," Applied Economics. 697-703.
Koreisha, S. G. and Pukkila, T . (2000). "Using the Residual White Noise Autoregressive Order Determination Criterion to Identify Unit Roots in ARIMA Models," (2000). Communications in Statistics: Simulation & Computation, 29 (with Tarmo Pukkila).
Cook, R. D. and Pardoe, I. (2000). "Comment on 'Bayesian backfitting' by T. J. Hastie and R. J. Tibshirani," Statistical Science 15(3), 213–216.
Fang, Y. and J. Zhang, (1999). "Performance of Control Charts for Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedatic Processes," Journal of Applied Statistics, 701-714.
Koreisha, S. G. and Pukkila, T. (1999). "The Selection of the Order and Identification of Nonzero Elements in the Polynomial Matrices of Vector Autoregressive Processes," Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation, 62, 207-235.
Koreisha, S. G. and Fang, Y. (1999). "The Impact of Measurement Errors on Prediction of ARMA Models," Journal of Forecasting, 18, 95-109. This paper won the 1999 Citation of Excellence Award from ANBAR Intelligence Group, UK.
Verma, R., Pullman, M. and Goodale, J. C. (1999). "Designing and positioning services for multicultural markets," Cornell Hotel and Restaurant Administration Quarterly, 29, 76-87.
Articles Authored by Former Members of the Department
1999-2001 (Partial List)
Droge, C., Jayaram, J. and Vickery, S.K., (2001). "The Timing of New Product Development and Introduction: An Examination of Antecedent Factors in the North American Automobile Supplier Industry," Journal of Product Innovation Management.
Jayaram, J., Calanton, R.J., Cooper, R.G., and Kleinschmidt, E.J. (2001). "Factors Affecting Project Success: An Empirical Study in the Chemical Industry," Journal of Business and Industrial Marketing.
Jayaram, J., Vickery S.K. and Droge, C. (2000). "The Complementary Influence of Information System Infrastructure and Process Improvement Enablers on Supply Chain Time-based Performance," International Journal of Physical Distribution and Logistics Management.
Jayaram, J., Droge, C., and Vickery, S.K., (1999). "The Impact of Human Resource Management Practices on Manufacturing Performance." Journal of Operations Management.
Handfield, R.B., Jayaram, J., and Ghosh, S. (1999). An Empirical Examination of Quality Tool Deployment Patterns and their Impact on Performance." International Journal of Production Research.
Jayaram, J., and Vickery, S.K., (1999). "An Empirical Study of Time-Based Competition in the Automotive Supplier Industry," International Journal of Operations & Production Management.
Petersen, K., G. Ragatz and R. Handfield, (2001). "Benefits Associated with Supplier Integration into New Product Development Under Conditions of Technology Uncertainty," Journal of Business Research.
Petersen, K., Frayer, D. & Scannell, T. (2001). "An Empirical Investigation of Global Sourcing Strategy Effectiveness," International Journal of Purchasing and Materials Management.